Finding customers and growing
Riskiest assumption
Your riskiest assumption is the one belief your idea depends on most, which is the first thing to test because the whole plan fails if it is wrong.
Also called riskiest assumption test, key assumption
Looking this up for a class, a job, or something you want to build? If it is the last one, nommi reads your idea before you spend months on it.
Every idea rests on several beliefs: that a problem exists, that people feel it often, that they would pay to fix it, that you can reach them. Most of them could be wrong. The riskiest one is the belief that is both most important and least proven. Testing it first saves the time you would spend building on top of it.
When this shows up
Example, not a real founder: you plan an app that helps landlords collect rent. Building the payments is easy. The belief nobody has checked is that small landlords want to switch from bank transfers at all. That is the riskiest assumption, and a few conversations can test it.
What to do next
Write the belief in one sentence that starts with "I believe". Then write the cheapest test that could prove it wrong within seven days.
Go deeper
AI made building cheap. What decides if my startup works now?
A verdict of Build it, Sharpen it or Kill it, your riskiest assumption, and a test for it.
Read the guideOr go straight to the tool